Samir’s In The Mix

What kind of effect will Geagea’s release have on the Lebanese political scene?

Most of the Lebanese commentators have been busy analyzing the meaning of Geagea’s entry to the Lebanese political scene. This is an important issue. After all, Geagea is a Christian heavyweight whose imprisonment was seen by many as a symbol of singling out the Christians as the “bad guys” in the Lebanese war.

His expected Mandella-esque release this week will be a major transformative event in the Lebanese political scene in general, but more specifically, in the Maronite Christian scene. A quick reading in the Beirut dailies this morning indicate that there are three major theories about the effect the born-again Geagea will have: The “Christians will unite and become powerful again theory”, the “Christians will jump at each other throats in a power struggle” theory and finally the “Christians will ally with various partners in Lebanon” theory.

The first theory is a bit idealistic. It can be easily dismissed as wishful thinking. The idea is that the Christian “people” will look around them and see that the other players in Lebanon all have strong and unified leaderships. This is why Samir Geagea will have a historical meeting with Aoun where the two strong Christian camps will “merge” to have their own unified leadership.

The second theory is exaggerated, It’s also a sort of wishful thinking from the pro-Syrian camp. The theory argues that as soon as Geagea is released, he is going to clash with Aoun, because the latter has shown that he is unwilling to share his power and hasn’t kept secret his plans for the presidency.
In fact, the clash will occur, but in a different way. It will be a clash for the hearts-and-minds of Christians, which will be fought through democratic ways, using marketing, plans and Alliances.

Which brings us to the last theory, championed by Annahar’s Sarkis Naoum in yesterday’s column.
The theory goes like this: The Christians will be divided into different camps in terms of their outlook to the future. Some of them will “strategically ally” with various powerful Moslem forces (Like Geagea with Hariri), while keeping a strong level of independence. Some of them will try to establish semi leaderships in the Christian arena (like Michel Aoun), some of them will be independent “moderates” like Butros Harb and now recently Pierre Jmayyel (who seems to have long term presidency objectives).

What does The Beirut Spring think about all of this?

I find what’s going on in the “Moslem scene” in terms of polar leaderships disheartening. I look at what’s going on in the “Christian scene” with a mix of hope and foreboding. Hope because some Christians are the leaders in establishing cross-sectarian/fully democratic parties like Nassib Lahhoud’s Movement for Democratic Change, and foreboding because I sense that the “Christian base” is feeling that it is entitled to play the game of having a strong and powerful leader just like “the others”.
But Instead of the Christians thinking that they should consolidate around one powerful leader like the Moslems are doing, It is the Moslems that should learn from the Christians and establish a “flatter” non-polar system.
The same system that the Christians perceive as a weakness from their side, is in fact a strength for Lebanon