Cornered Cats

A tweak of one of The Economist’s scenarios.

A lot has been made of the latest Economist article (requires subscription) about Syria. Kais wrote an excellent article about how that piece was mistranslated and misunderstood in Lebanon.
As a side note, any regular Economist reader knows that their analysis, although mostly prescient, is speculative. This is why, in a volatile geo-political region, their three proposed scenarios could well give way to many others.

One of the three scenarios they propose is that of the “Cornered Cat”. The idea is that when Syria finds itself cornered, “the regime chooses to lash out at its tormentors”.
This scenario is the one I find most likely (The Economist’s Choice for the likeliest scenario is that of the “Cornered Scorpion” where Syria would allegedly sting itself).
The “Cornered Cat” scenario makes more sense to people familiar with the Baathist mentality. Witness Saddam’s irrational defiance until the last moment.
But the proposed scenario is incomplete. Syria is not the only cat in the corner: Its bigger, more ferocious brother is there too, and together, they can cause a lot of harm to their “tormentors”. That other cat is Iran.
Iran is proving to be more defiant than anyone in the international community had envisaged. It is using its leverage in the oil markets (by threatening to severe oil deals with large influential consumers like China and Russia) to successfully sabotage the international community’s efforts to punish it. Iran had realized from history that concessions don’t work with the US. Only force does. (this is regularly echoed by Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon)
Iran will defend the Syrian regime which it sees as a strategic ally. This explains Assad’s chest-banging in Iran on Sunday, where he reminded the world of “the relations of friendship and cooperation between the two countries”

How would Lebanon fit into that picture?
Unfortunately, we are the battlefield, the claws, the teeth, the guns. We are the tormented ones.