The Shape Of Things To Come.

How the internal political battle is shaping up after the Mehlis Report.

It is too early to predict exactly how the political scene will look like in Lebanon in the next few hours, but enough is already known to have a general idea.

The majority coalition (FM-PSP-LF-QS-DL) is in full-throttle; If the headlines of Hariri-owned newspaper and Gebran Tueni’s statements are of any indication, their apparent immediate objective is the overthrowing of President Lahhoud. It is already preparing to flex its street muscles this evening, when thousands of young Lebanese are expected to come to Hariri’s shrine and celebrate “The Day Of The Truth”

On the other hand, while Michel Aoun has no love lost for Syria, he told the LBC that the report has some ‘political conclusions’ and that he is against overthrowing the President by force. He said that if it is to be done, it should be done in consensus among the various Lebanese parties. He warns of instability otherwise. Expect his official position to be announced after the exceptional meeting he’s holding in Rabieh with his block at 2:30 this afternoon.
It remains unclear whether Aoun’s position is due to his presidential aspirations or simply one to raise his negotiation powers. Expect a violent exchange between him and Mr. Jumblat, who will probably renounce him as a Lahhoud defender. Saad Hariri might be a bit more flexible, so expect his envoy Ghattas Khoury to be visiting Rabieh soon.

This evening, the Seniora government is expected to produce an official reaction to the report, but the task is not as easy as it sounds; Hezbollah has already prepared the grounds yesterday by renouncing what they called cabinet procedural irregularities. According to Trad Hmedeh, a Hezbollah minister who spoke to NBN yesterday, P.M. Seniora speaks in the name of his party when he makes official statements, not in the name of the government (part of which is Hezbollah), and that, Hmedeh thinks, should be changed. In other words, mind your language tonight Mr. Seniora or we’re stepping out.

Nabih Berri’s Amal movement remains cryptic. It has not made any public statements yet, but anyone who knows Nabih Berri well would estimate that he’s planning to join the party that will ultimately emerge as a winner.