Aoun’s Road To Baabda

Michel Aoun can be the President. But first he needs to realign his strategy.

On the wake of the Mehlis report that points the fingers to associates of President Lahhoud, Calls are coming in from all directions for the President to resign. The next big thing in Lebanese politics is finding a successor; this is arguably the most difficult political challenge since the Syrians have left.
Constitutionally, The Lebanese President has to be a Maronite Christian, and to understand the state of the Maronites in Lebanon, one can learn a lot by looking at the Democratic party in the US.

The victory of President George W. Bush in the American elections in 2004 has divided the Democratic Party into two factions:

On one hand, you have the Clintonites (After Bill Clinton): The Democrats that believe that, in order to be electable, the party has to move a bit to the right (in other words, become more like the Republicans). They are therefore less hostile to free trade, less gang-ho about abortion rights and employees’ rights, and more hawkish on Iraq and Security.

On the other hand, you have the Deaniacks (After Howard Dean). They disagree with the Clintonites over strategy. They think that the best way to be elected in 2008 is to do exactly what Mr. Bush did: Rally your core base to turn out in great numbers to vote for you, instead of reaching out to the center. The Deaniacks believe that they represent the party’s soul better than the Clintonites. They call themselves “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party”. They are idealistic and uncompromising.

Unfortunately, although the Deaniacks do represent the Democratic Party better, their strategy is flawed; it is a widely acknowledged fact that, for every Liberal in the US, there are two conservatives. The Clintonites, although not “authentic”, are more likely to be elected.

Back to Lebanon.
Michel Aoun is the Deaniack of the Maronites; he is their most representative, and he speaks in their name. His main argument is this: If Nabih Berri, a fairly hardliner Shiaa representative, got to become Speaker of the House, why shouldn’t the Maronite one (himself), become President? Following that argument, Aoun, like the Deaniacks, is choosing to rally his base instead of reaching out to the others. If you noticed, Aoun is speaking more these days of “Christian representation” and less of his trademark “secular state”.
But, like the Deaniacks, Mr. Aoun’s strategy is flawed: for every Maronite in this country, there’s a Sunni and a Shiaa. In Mr. Nabih Berri’s case, The Sunnis and the Shias have both approved of him. But Aoun is universally loathed outside of his base and is considered by many to be provocative.

However, unlike in the Democratic Party, someone has to emerge as a President from the Christian camp. Aoun could do wisely and chose to reach out. By doing that he can isolate his most vocal critics (like Jumblat) and appeal to the more moderates (Hariri). If not, he’ll have to live to see one of his lesser co-religionists become his President.