A Complete Change of Perspective.

The Students Elections in Lebanese Universities are the sign of something big to come: a Lebanese political system based on two parties.

When analyzing the student elections of the American University of Beirut, a lot of fellow pundits and commentators felt a great deal of confusion and despair.
Lebanon Profile writes:

It is shocking to see the people who chanted with passion on behalf of 1559 a year ago now chant in support of Hezbollah.

One of his readers concurs:

I really hate this political marriage between Aoun and Hizbullah. Objectively they have nothing in common, i am pissed that Aoun is providing cover for Hizbullah

Even the mainstream media seems to be at awe with the new slogan: “Berri, Nassrallah, Rabieh w bass!”.

Where’s the catch? Why is Hezbollah allying with Aoun who publicly declares he’s for disarming them? Is it really just a tactical alliance of converging interests?
This post is going to argue that in fact, politics has nothing to do with this; Aoun and Hezbollah have more “objective common grounds” than a lot of people suspect.

Why don’t we shift our paradigm and try looking at the issue from a totally different perspective? A perspective that is nevertheless the most essential factor in most democracies: The Economy.

If we do so, suddenly a lot of things start making sense and we can stop reading too much into things and reach ridiculous political conclusions (like for example that Aoun is allying with Syria to destabilize Lebanon)

In fact, this is not a battle between the Pro-Syrians and the Anti Syrians, This is very much a battle between the proletariat and the bourgeois, the people versus the elite, the left versus the right, the Socialists versus the Conservatives. Let’s look closely at the two groups competing in AUB, with their Lebanese constituents (outside AUB) in our mind.

On one hand, you have wealthy traders (Sunnis) allying with generally wealthy land-owning Christians and Druze. They want pro-market policies, flexible labor laws and pro-business policies. They want a good relationship with the outside world because it represents opportunity, a new market. Those people are generally well educated and soft-spoken. Perhaps the most symbolic outcome of AUB’s elections is the fact that the conservative alliance won 14 out of 14 seats in the Business school

On the other hand, you have soldiers, farmers, and poor laborers who want totally different things: they want government hand-outs (like diesel) and labor protection laws. They are generally skeptical of business, they speak more of corruption and less of markets. They look to the outside world as a threat: cheaper labor and cheaper agricultural produce that will threaten their jobs/crops. Those people are noisy and aggressive because their whole livelihood is at steak. Remember, Aounists always wanted to protect the Lebanese farmer (although the reason given at the time was to counter Syrian produce). This also explains the popularity of the Aounists in places like Akkar and Bequaa.

Of course, there exists a lot of non-economic factors at play (Syria’s role and sectarianism), but one could argue that it is safe to look at the economy as the most potent force behind political dynamics. This is a world view that still has its skeptics (France), but one that is nevertheless the backbone of our world of today.

In my opinion, the AUB’s elections should be a cause for celebration. The sectarian lines are being blurred by the economy, but no one wants to admit it.