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The Lebanese March 14 leaders should watch very carefully what’s happening in the Ukraine

Just under a year ago, Vaclav Havel, Leader of the Czech revolution that toppled communism, saw the Lebanese intifada on March 14 and remembered his good ol’ revolutionary days. He rushed to address his Lebanese “friends” with passion and optimism:

Thanks to your resolve, discipline and confidence in the future, the death [of Hariri] has triggered off a process that nobody will stop now. By peaceful civic action you have managed to overcome not only fear and indifference, but also differences of opinion and religion, and to join hands for a better future.

Ahh, the glory of March 14. Fast forward a year later:

Mr. Havel writes a considerably less upbeat piece, published today in The Daily Star. The title says it all: “After revolutionary euphoria, make way for disillusion”. He writes:

All revolutions, in the end, turn from euphoria to disillusion. In a revolutionary atmosphere of solidarity and self-sacrifice, people tend to think that when their victory is complete, paradise on Earth is inevitable. Of course, paradise never comes, and — naturally — disappointment follows

Quite the change from the “process that nobody will stop now” don’t you think?

To be fair, Mr Havel wasn’t talking about Lebanon. He was commenting on Ukraine’s post revolution malaise. But that article serves as a stern reminder to the Lebanese that not all revolutions have happy endings. Just read Mr. Havel’s article, replace “Ukraine” with “Lebanon”, “Russia” with “Syria” and “The European Union” with “The International Community” and you’ll see why we have a reason for worrying.

What happened in Ukraine is the equivalent of Lebanon having a general elections where Hariri, Jumblat and the rest of the March 14 symbols all suffer great losses.

Jumblat is a keen reader of history, he cannot say he wasn’t warned.