Huffing and Puffing

Hezbollah might be thumping its chest, but it is weaker today than it has ever been. Can it survive this crisis?

No more smiles for Nasrallah

“7illou 3an sama rabbna!!” (get off our backs!!)

That was how a Hezbollah MP, Nawaf Al Mussawi, responded to his many critics on a TV program last week. In his interview with Aljazeera, Hassan Nassrallah, The Hezbollah leader, insinuated that the parliamentarian majority and the Lebanese P.M were covertly complicit in the Israeli attacks on Lebanon. People in Lebanon are noticing that Hezbollah is unusually loud, irritable and less compromising with the rest of the Lebanese. Why is it so?

Some people say the traumatic effect of the war took its toll on Hezbollah’s nerves. Some say Hezbollah are reacting to a newly-emboldened March 14 movement (According to Al-balad, Hariri’s Future Movement is now officially referring to Hezbollah as a militia). But most likely, Hezbollah is kicking and screaming because it’s losing its grip on power.

As veteran political Analyst Sarkis Naoom pointed out in Annahar, A strong UNIFIL in the south and good border patrols mean that Hezbollah’s weapons have become largely ineffective. This is prompting the Lebanese to ask: “Why are you keeping your weapons if you don’t intend to use them against other Lebanese?”

But Hezbollah’s problems are not only about hostile Lebanese, rebellious Shiites and military incapacity. It can survive those the same way it survived its last identity crisis after the Israelis withdrew from south Lebanon in 2000. The major new problem for Hezbollah is that its allies are showing signs that they might abandon it.

Michel Aoun, Hezbollah’s Christian ally in Lebanon and a major source of internal legitimacy for the party, has for the first time blamed Hezbollah for the war (although he also blamed the Lebanese government). Aoun made it clear to Al-Arabiya that “Hezbollah is not our ally, we just have an understanding with them over a few points”

Syria, Hezbollah’s logistical ally has become so weak it had to promise Koffie Annan, the UN chief, to stop the flow of arms to Lebanon. This can be seen as an admission of guilt, but most likely Syria will revert back to its old ways soon. Still, it will be more difficult as the scrutiny has intensified.

Iran, on the surface, remains a strong backer of Hezbollah. But something seems to be going on between Iran and France. The French Foreign Minister shocked the world when he visited Tehran while the war was still raging and cordially shook hands with his Iranian counterpart. He raised eyebrows when he declared that Iran is “a great country, a great people and a great civilization which is respected and which plays a stabilizing role in the region.”
Today, that visit was followed up with a major and surprising setback for the United States when President Jack Chirac of France effectively announced that he opposes sanctions against Iran. The question that could make Hassan Nassrallah lose sleep is: what did Iran have to give France (who has Lebanon high up in its priorities list) in return?

In light of the above, it is easy to understand why Hezbollah is holding a major rally on Friday to declare its “Divine Victory”. If enough people showed up, they calculate, Nassrallah can convince its reluctant allies that it still has a lot to offer and it would be an error to abandon them.

Hezbollah’s logic seems to be: If you’re in a hole, keep digging.