Showdown or Hoedown?

March 14 will soon come up with a response to Hezbollah’s threats. Will they raise or fold?

If you were a March 14 supporter, you’d understandably be confused. Most M14 parties were surprised by Speaker Berri’s so-called eedieh (eid’s gift); when they were expecting a denouement they got an “or-else” deadline. A few days later, Hassan Nassrallah pounds them with his local version of “beyond-beyond-Haifa”. (ma ba3d ba3d al ithnayn al mukbel)

Veteran Political Writer Sarkis Naoom wrote yesterday that both March 14 and Hezbollah are in a fix, but that Hezbollah has more to gain from a street showdown and more to lose from the status quo. He argues that “the nature of parties who are ruling prevents them from going into populist street confrontations” (as an aside, it seems Mr. Naoom is not keeping a close eye on American politics these days)

What will March 14 do? Will they raise the stakes by planning counter demonstrations? Or will they give in and appease Hezbollah?

That’s precisely what Saad Hariri, Samir Geagea, Pierre Gemayyel, and Walid Jumblatt, all March 14 bigwigs, have been scratching their heads about for the last few days.

The signs are abundant that a showdown is in the pipelines. The very fact that the big three of March 14 are publicly consulting each other means that some mobilization might soon be in the air. Both Geagea and Jumblatt have come out publicly in favor of public confrontation. As the LF Minister Elias Sarkis puts it “Jismna Labbees” (we are thick skinned and ready), or as PSP’s Ali Hmedeh puts it: “We should let our freedom-loving people decide the outcome”. Even this blog supports a credible threat of confrontation as a deterrent.

But the Future Movment’s Leader, Saad Hariri is still conspicuously silent. He is perhaps waiting for a last-ditch Saudi effort to contain the situation.

The Saudi ambassador is trying to come up with a compromise where the government expands to include more ministers from Hezbollah and Aoun, perhaps in return for guarantees about Hezbollah’s weapons and the Hariri tribunal. There is even talk that Aoun might be visiting Saudi Arabia soon. Saudi Arabia could be trying to drive a wedge between Iran and Syria in Lebanon.

The Saudi effort is unlikely to succeed. If that was the case, in the words of Samir Geagea, the Lebanese should get ready for another March 14.