Guerrillas Guerrilla’d

How Hezbollah is losing the internal war.

I see trouble

One of war’s most durable lessons is that when your enemies change, your tactics have to change. Too bad Hassan Nassralah didn’t heed that aphorism. In fact, on the Lebanese stage, a large, strong and highly organized Hezbollah is finding itself in the awkward position of fighting smaller, faster, and nimbler opponents.

In a conventional war, large armies rely on overwhelming attacks with big weapons and complex logistics. This makes them slow and inefficient, and creates openings for faster guerrillas to attack and run. The army gets angry and sends even larger weapons, while the guerrillas just hide and wait for another opportunity to scratch their mighty opponent. At the end, the enemy dies of a thousand small cuts and runs away.

This is the story of Hezbollah and Israel. But it’s also the story of Hezbollah and March 14, with a stunning reversal of roles. In the internal Lebanese war, Hezbollah is so ill-prepared that it is actually acting like the very enemies he defeated.

Like the Israelis and Americans threaten mayhem (or Shock and Awe) before any assault, Hezbollah threatened a march that will swiftly transform the Lebanese political scene: On December 1st, Hezbollah assembled its large and organized army of demonstrators, which marched with impeccable precision to conquer the enemy’s fortress.

But like true guerrilla fighters, March 14 loyalists just hid in their holes, and waited for the behemoth to release all its bottled-up energy. The Shiite-dominated opposition was taken aback by the utter lack of resistance but just kept screaming their lungs away anyway.

But then, as they became tired and bored, a jolt of energy has suddenly struck their opponents. Large demonstrations here and there supporting the government, biting commentaries from left and right about how the resistance forgot Israel and now wants to “liberate” Beirut. The Sunnis seeing right through Nassrallah’s “non secterianism” claims and bogus anti-American rhetoric, diplomats asking for the return to talks…

But Sanioura stays on and March 14 is winning by not losing… In Nassrallah’s logic, that would qualify as a divine victory.

With this background, it is easy to understand why Hassan Nassrallah became a diminished figure, screaming an inconsistent speech full of name-calling and empty of reason.

You would also understand the secret of Sanioura’s confident smile and calm demeanor, coupled with an acerbic and ridiculing reply.