The Meaning Of Victory

Barring surprises, the Army is headed to a resounding victory against Fateh Al Islam in the Naher Al Bared camp. How did it happen and what will the repercussions be?

Things didn’t start too well. The Army’s initial reaction to the terrorists’ provocation was clumsy. Its pride wounded, its only plan was to bomb away at anything that moved in the camp, risking a backlash in public opinion.Thankfully, sanity prevailed later when time was given to the militants to surrender. 

That was exactly what the Army needed: The Generals went back to their drawing boards, the Government fought the propaganda war, negotiated with factions and asked for extra ammunition. At the same time, Lebanese and Arab aid organizations began addressing the unfolding humanitarian crisis.

Their heads cool, the Army later managed, with a combination of careful advancement, boots on the ground and air and sea cover to slowly tighten the noose around the necks of the terrorists. The Army also took care of staying on top of the propaganda war by repeatedly exposing the Terrorists’ PR tricks.

By avoiding to rush into anything stupid, the Army has allowed the movement that could have terrorized the country to implode from within. The militants are reportedly showing signs of desperation, low morale, and are beginning to surrender.

A victory will have very large implications.

The Americans have had their doubts about the Army’s allegiance. It was very common to read in the western media that “The army is 40% Shiaa who are loyal to Hezbollah.” This is why many countries dragged their feet in supplying it with the weapons it needed to establish its authority on all of our territory. That will now change, as the Army not only ignored Hassan Nassrallah’s red line, but showed contempt to it. You can now expect enthusiastic international endorsements for our men in uniform.

The Army will also teach a lesson about counter-insurgency that many can learn from: You don’t have to commit Hama-style massacres to defeat Islamist insurgencies. All you need is the right combination of Power, sophistication, propaganda and popular support.

Finally, and most importantly, the Army will boost its authority and deter future malicious designs to destabilize this delicate country. 

A lot of rice is waiting to be thrown.