Trick Or Treat?

Nabih Berri’s words sound good, but can he deliver?

(Photo: The Daily Star)

“Now I say despite all that has passed, forgive us, let us all accept presidential elections through consensus and through a quorum of two-thirds, and the opposition will drop its demand for a national unity or expanded government before the elections,”

Thus declared Nabih Berri, our Speaker of the house, his latest initiative.

On the face of it, a change of heart of this magnitude -letting go of the opposition’s most objectionable demand- deserves to be rewarded with an equally significant concession, especially that everyone, not only Mr. Berri, wants to “save the country”. 

But March 14 shouldn’t rush to hug Mr. Berri and should instead indulge their cynical instincts.

The Lebanese want more than ever to agree among themselves, and Mr. Berri is more desperate than anyone for a settlement, but March 14 has the right to ask: What has changed since his last initiatives? 

It’s obvious that Syria’s meddling didn’t go away. Only yesterday one of Assad’s pawns accused Mr. Seniora on Live TV to want to kill Sayyed Nassrallah. Does that sound like a Syria that wants an internal settlement? How can Mr. Berri convince us that Syria no longer dictates what he does?

More suspicious is the suddenness of the U-turn. What happened to the opposition’s mantra: “A National unity government is the only, I repeat, the only, solution?” 

Watching Iran has made us believe that its proxies often use tactical friendliness (Palestinian Unity government, the hiwar in Lebanon, and recently Muqtada El Sadr’s 6 months unilateral ceasefire in Iraq) to negotiate power-sharing arrangements only to break them later and take over completely. Why is it different now Mr. Berri?

Nevertheless, March 14 shouldn’t be hostile to Mr. Berri and they should explore together his proposals. 

Complete disregard of his offer is bad negotiation etiquette and could be damaging politically (Is Mr. Berri right? does March 14 want to control the country?). Moreover, March 14 needs Berri’s help to diffuse potential minefields (Syrian lackeys and Aoun)

Perhaps something good could come out of this delicate dance, but it would be wise not to hold your breath.