Choosing The Lebanese President. Part 2

The internal negotiations are part of an opaque and complex process that leaves the people clueless and powerless.

A round table minus the table…

We know Mr. Hariri is talking with Mr. Berri. We also know that Mr. Hariri is talking with Mr. Aoun. That’s all. With the exception of a few clarifying statements here and there, we the Lebanese are in the dark when it comes to negotiations on who the next President will be.

Messrs Hariri and Berri are often portrayed as the doves who are willing to make compromises “if Lebanon’s highest interests are served”. They are both influenced by Saudi Arabia and that new entrant to doveland, France. The other parties, namely Hezbollah, Jumblat and Geagea are often portrayed as hardliners who represent the interests of outside parties (USA on one side, and Syria & Iran on the other) who are bent on playing the zero sum game of Middle Eastern hegemony.

All this results in a process so delicate the slightest unknown might break it. Occasionally some light is cast (like Mr. Ghassan Tueni’s insinuation of the inclusion of a third March 14 candidate). But in general, the Lebanese really can’t tell with certainty what will happen after November 24, as any of the extremes is likely.

Nevertheless, game theory and self interest suggest that the most plausible outcome will be a last-minute settlement. Paradoxically, that is the only thing most of the Lebanese seem to agree on.