Hold The Fireworks

As the haggling in the next few days will show, the Arab League’s initiative is far from a done deal.

The Lebanese are not famous for their cautious optimism. We like to let it all out. Just look at the jump at the Beirut Stock Exchange and you’ll realize that we are betting our money on good times to come.

The cause for that optimism is the Arab League’s plan to fix the Lebanese political crisis. Forget the league’s abysmal record or the fact that it comes at the heels of many failed international efforts. This time, we tell ourselves, the progress is real.

The Arabs managed to twist the arms of Syria, one of the backers of the opposition in Lebanon, by threatening to boycott the Arab summit in Damascus next March. This is why Damascus agreed (fingers crossed) on a formula of “no winners, no losers” that includes the unconditional election of General Michel Suleiman. The spirit of the solution is that none of the parties gets to have a decisive voting power.

Many Lebanese politicians including the Speaker Nabih Berri immediately praised the plan as workable. But before we take that deep breath of relief, we have to keep an eye on two potential deal busters, one internal and the other external.

The internal potentially fatal hurdle is the composition of the next government. If I were in the opposition, I’d feel sold out by Syria, as the 14–6–10 interpretation -the Majority’s, the President’s and the opposition’s shares respectively- looks eerily similar to March 14’s original plan previously dismissed by March 8.

The solution also lacks face-saving exits for Mr. Aoun and for Hezbollah. The FPM’s leader was told that he was negotiating on behalf of the opposition but the Arab solution bypassed him altogether. Hezbollah had announced that the veto-wielding third was their “constitutional rights” and that they will never ever let go of it. They were denied it.

That explains the hardline interpretations of the Plan by Mr. Aoun (14 for the Majority, 10 for the Opposition and 6 for the President) and by Hezbollah (10, 10, 10) who are both waiting for Mr. Moussa’s arrival to negotiate better terms. Mr. Aoun is even calling for a “compromise Prime Minister”, and Hezbollah is insisting on “true partnership”, code speak for a veto-wielding third. Both demands are against the spirit of the Arab League’s offering.

The external threat to the proposal comes from Iran. The Persians weren’t too comfortable with the sight of Arabs ganging up on their Syrian ally and twisting its arm. Moreover, In Iran’s eyes, the deal was rushed at a suspicious timing. The upcoming American President’s visit to the region is widely seen as a coalition-building effort against Iran.

The Arab league’s effort is the most comprehensive attempt yet to solve the Lebanese political crisis. But that doesn’t necessarily make it good enough. The Lebanese should learn the ways of cautious optimism.