Nassrallah’s Desperate Cry For Attention

Hezbollah is poking the Israeli snake hoping that a “foolish” reaction would reduce the pressure on Gaza (and on Hezbollah’s internal political situation). Will it work?

We have a big pile of bloody limbs…

Events in Gaza have a mysterious way of echoing themselves in Lebanon. Take for instance the year 2006 when the Israelis got crazy in Gaza to free a soldier in Hamas’ captivity. A few days later, Hezbollah daredevils expressed their “solidarity” by capturing and killing Israeli soldiers of their own, causing the devastating July war.

The result of that botched war was that Hezbollah ended up gaining more stature in the Arab world. In fact, most of Lebanon’s political problems today stem from Hezbollah’s insistence on reaping the benefits of “winning” that war.

In that light, it would be easy to understand why angry calls in Israel for killing Mr. Nassrallah are music to the Sayyed’s ears. The angrier the Israelis are, the more reckless their reaction will be, the more Hezbollah will benefit, the more Gaza will benefit.

Mr. Nassrallah taunted the Israelis by showing up in public and by deliberately chosing gory words to describe the severed Israeli limbs that could or could not be in Hezbollah’s possession. After all, the only evidence that they exist comes from Al-Akhbar, Hezbollah’s mouthpiece, which conveniently chose not to publish pictures of the limbs for “humanitarian reasons”. 

Al-Akhbar’s testimony is sketchy for two reasons: First, Al-Akhbar was the same source that “witnessed” Hezbollah’s “largest ever maneuvers” last year; an event that turned out to be more sizzle than fact. Second, Al-Akhbar was not shy during the July war of publishing gory pictures of Lebanese children blown apart by Israeli bombs. We are therefore excused to find their “humanitarian” argument hollow. In other words, Mr. Nassrallah could be bluffing…Again. (Here’s a challenge to Al-Akhbar’s team: If you really do have those pictures, why don’t you email a copy to me? If I’m convinced, I’ll tell everyone that I saw them without publishing them)

Hotheaded Israelis are making news by clamoring for Sayyed Nassrallah’s head, but there are signs that the Israelis are not taking the bait this time. Yigal Walt writes in Yideot Ahranot, an Israeli newspaper, that “there is no need to kill Hezbollah’s leader, who is quickly becoming an Israeli asset”:

At his current weakened state, Nasrallah is an asset to Israel. Just like Iran’s Ahmadinejad, his contemptible rhetoric merely serves to alienate Hizbullah from growing parts of humanity. Killing him will eliminate this strategic asset, turn him into a martyr, give Israel-bashers some more ammunition, and likely renew rocket attacks on the northern front. There is also no telling who would be stepping into his robe — after all, Nasrallah himself “came to power” after Israel assassinated his predecessor. [..] Weakened and in hiding, Nasrallah increasingly feels the need to sink lower in order to garner some attention.

So what’s your opinion on this? Do you think Sayyed Nassrallah is bluffing? And if so, does that mean that he’s internally weakened? How do you think the outcome of Gaza will affect Hezbollah’s Lebanese position?