Patrick Seal: Syria Lost Confidence In General Sleiman

Renowned Syria expert and Hafez Assad biographer Patrick Seal believes that Syria no longer trusts General Michel Sleiman to be Lebanon’s president.

In an article that was translated into Arabic in the pan-Arab Alhayat, Mr Seal writes:

A key problem would seem to be that Syria has lost confidence in General Michel Suleiman, the Lebanese army commander who, it was hoped, would be a President acceptable to all sides.

General Suleiman developed close ties with Syria in the 1990s when the Lebanese army was being rebuilt with Syrian help after the civil war. Last year, when Lebanon was battling a violent Islamic faction entrenched in the Palestinian camp of Nahr al-Barid in northern Lebanon, Syria supplied the Lebanese army with much-needed ammunition.

In a word, General Suleiman’s candidacy for the presidency of Lebanon was seen as a concession to Syria. But that was last year. Syria seems no longer to trust him, believing that he has moved into the Saudi/US camp. Another Damascus rumour is that the General paid a recent secret visit to Saudi Arabia, when he is said to have given pledges about his future alignment.

In any event, the General is no puppet, having emerged strengthened from the fierce battles at Nahr al-Barid. If elected, he is likely to be an independent President. This is a risk Syria seems unwilling to take.

If Syria ends up scuttling Mr. Sleiman’s chances, it will mean that Syria’s influence, or as Mr. Seal puts it, its veto power, is more effective than the collective will of all Arab countries.

Is it?