Analysis: Imad Mughniyah snuffed

The Killing of Hezbollah’s Imad Mugniyah is a significant event that can be read in many ways.

In the past 10 years, Hezbollah worked hard to conceal the aspect of their party represented by its co-founder, Imad Mughniya. In a large rebranding effort, Hezbollah convinced the Lebanese people and their political allies that their party is exclusively involved in legitimate, local resistance against Israel.

As a result, a lot of young Lebanese no longer associate Hezbollah with mass suicide killings, embassy bombings and plane hijacking in foreign lands. Yet that is precisely what Mr. Mugniyah, one of the shadiest figures in Hezbollah, was implicated with.

The killing of Mr. Mugniya, Hezbollah’s No. 2 and one of the top wanted men by the FBI, was neatly executed in Syria, using a small bomb planted in his vehicle that took him out immediately. The usual and likely suspects are the CIA or the Mossad, who had the highest interests in taking him down.

If that is true, then this would be a resounding success for those intelligence services, and a huge embarrassment to the Syrian authorities, not least because of the location of the killing -next to an Iranian School- and its timing -coinciding with a 2-day visit by the Iranian foreign minister to Syria-

But should we totally dismiss conspiratorial thinking? After all, this is Syria, with its famously draconian security apparatus. Could such a significant killing happen on its turf without the regime’s knowledge? Could it be that Syria is sending Mr. Obama a peace offering that precedes Mr. Brzezinsky’s visit to embarrass Mr. Bush?

What about Lebanon? Mr. Walid Jumblat said yesterday that the Lebanese could “no longer coexist with Hezbollah”, and alluded to a Hezbollah role in Killing captain wissam Eid. Did Mr. Jumblat know something we didn’t know? And finally, is it a coincidence that Hezbollah will hold a funeral for Mr. Mughniya at the same day that March 14 is planning to demonstrate en mass?