Yet Another Premature Round Of Dialogue

The conditions are not yet ripe for another round of 7iwar.

More talking, less results.

After a 2-month vacation, majority leader Mr. Saad Hariri looked fresh and bouncy holding talks with the various political a religious figures. Mr. Hariri even had the energy to extend Mr. Berri a deal on behalf of March 14:

“We support a qada-based parliamentary election law and we support the formation of a national unity government as well as any other proposed settlements, but we cannot achieve all that without a president.”

To the untrained ear, these sound like concessions to the oppositions’ main demands. But a qada-based election is not the same as the electoral law of 1960 that the opposition is demanding, and the “national unity government” had a catch: It was “as proposed in the Arab initiative”, i.e. without the blocking third, arguably the most important opposition demand and the reason this entire stand-off began. Not to mention the pre-condition of electing Mr. Suleiman, which — if it happens — removes all bargaining power from the opposition.

Of course, Hezbollah was not impressed. Al-Akhbar, their mouthpiece, did today what it does best: Thrust Mr. Aoun to the forefront. 
In their main story today, Al-akhbar highlighted Mr. Aoun’s view that the dialogue Mr. Hariri and Mr. Berri are cooking up is just another attempt to resurrect the quadripartite alliance (an electoral alliance of the 4 Moslem parties at the expense of Christians that resulted in a backlash that propped Mr. Aoun). 

That’s not all. The plan, Mr. Aoun said, was part of an elaborate Saudi-funded scheme to undermine his popularity by buying off people in Christian areas, and turning ex-allies like Michel el Murr against him.

Hezbollah in turn said that they will not take part of any deal that will undermine their “imporant allies,” in reference to Mr Aoun. In other words, hold the champaign, May 13 is just another date.