Showdown. A War Hezbollah Can’t Win

Faced with a determined government, an increasingly isolated party resorts to desperate measures.

Blocking the road to the airport. (Photo credit: Reuters)

Today, Hezbollah needed a big fig leaf to cover its naked security assault on the government, on March 14 and on the average Lebanese citizen. Unfortunately for them, the cover the labor protests offered didn’t last much. It fell off as soon as Hezbollah’s own roadblocks prevented their hungry comrades from protesting. The party of god went on and raised the stakes, deciding to block off the roads to the airport “until the government withdraws its latest decisions”, namely those to unseat Hezbollah’s security officer in the Airport and dismantle their private communications network.

Is this a war Hezbollah can win?

Two signs indicate that it’s not. The first is the meagre turnout in Christian areas in today’s supposedly national demonstrations. Except in hardcore holdouts like in Mr. Sleiman Frangieh’s Zgharta, life looked normal in Jbeil, Kessrouan and Metn. It was, as one blogger puts it, a “grey Wednesday”, unlike last year’s “black Tuesday”. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Hezbollah’s Christian allies no longer have the stomach for Hezbollah’s bloody brand of resistance against Mr. Seniora’s government. Hezbollah’s support, in other words, is being reduced to its core Shiaa constituency.

The second sign is Hezbollah’s decision to block the airport’s road, which is seen as a huge gamble. Unlike the Beirut central district where they managed to camp for 500 days, every single Lebanese uses the Beirut RHI Airport, and blocking its roads will prove unsustainable. The summer season beckons and Lebanese diaspora from all sects will want to visit home. Shiaas especially send large amounts of cash to Hezbollah by stuffing their luggages with well hidden dollars from Africa and South America. Pressures on Hezbollah will mount from within and from without to clear up the Airport road. Expect Mr. Nassrallah tomorrow to announce a “magnanimous” order to clear the roads.

This has become a high-stakes game of chicken between the suddenly-bold government and the waning Hezbollah. The party that blinks first will lose big, and the bad news for Hezbollah is that time is not on their side.