Israel Might Do Something…Anything

With a wounded pride, an angry public, widespread recrimination and a general election looming, the neighbor down south is very likely to make an irrational and dangerous move.

Will anything interrupt Jbeil’s summer peace? (photo source)

To watch Lebanon today is to see the closest it’s gotten to an oasis of peace since 2005. Tourists are flocking in droves to a rare peaceful summer, business is booming, big plans are being made, parliament will convene after two years of absense and politicians are talking with their bitterest of foes. It would seem almost foolish to believe that a neighboring country is sharpening its knife and making loud threats.

But that is precisely what’s happening. At issue is Hezbollah’s stated aim of shooting down Israeli spy-planes over Lebanese territory. That combined with the perceived “tipping point” in Lebanon (a situation where Hezbollah is now supposedly controlling the Lebanese government) and the brouhaha surrounding Kuntar’s release have sent Israeli politicians and media running around like headless chickens.

Israeli politicians are trying to exert pressure on the UN to enforce resolution 1701 which mandates a curb on the smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah.. They say they’ll do all they can to prevent advanced anti-aircraft missiles from reaching Hezbollah and they don’t have any reason to bluff: Israeli politicians are under immense pressure to prove to their depressed citizens that they’re not weak. 

The Israelis seem to be spoiling for another war. Ehud Barak insinuated that Olmert lost the 2006 war because of his “lack of experience”, Tsivi Livni is trying to wear Sharon’s mantle and warmongering Benjamin Natanyahu is leading in the polls.

Unfortunately, if a new war is to take place, the Israelis are trying to make clear that not only Hezbollah will pay the price, but all of Lebanon. A war that will “raze Lebanon to the ground” as one Israeli commentator puts it will be foolish and irrational, but that won’t make it any less of a disaster.