The International Crisis Group On The Next War

The ICG have produced a new report: “Drums of War: Israel and the “Axis of Resistance”.

Bottom Line:

1- Why there could be a war

the political roots of the crisis remain unaddressed, the underlying dynamics are still explosive, and miscalculations cannot be ruled out.

2- How a war would look like

Should hostilities break out, Israel will want to hit hard and fast to avoid duplicating the 2006 scenario. It will be less likely than in the past to distinguish between Hizbollah and a Lebanese government of which the Shiite movement is an integral part and more likely to take aim at Syria

3- How to prevent it

The key to unlocking this situation is — without neglecting the central Israeli-Palestinian track — to resume meaningful negotiations between Israel on the one hand and Syria and Lebanon on the other. This is the only realistic way to shift underlying dynamics and, in particular, affect Syria’s calculations. Without that, Damascus will continue to transfer weapons to Hizbollah, the Shiite movement will successfully resist pressure to disarm and Israel will keep on violating Lebanon’s sovereignty.

But what makes the ICG think that the parties will negotiate in good faith? Both parties can be negotiating and stockpiling at the same time. War can even be used as a leverage enhancer for negotiations. In other words, some might think that war is good for negotiations, not that negotiations are bad for war.