Elias Muhanna On Nasrallah’s Presentation

Back to the old duality?

The short-term result [of the presentation] will be the simple fact that the Lebanese will now have two different sources of authority on the question of who killed Rafiq al-Hariri. Just as the old binaries of the 2005–09 period were fading away (March 14 vs. March 8, loyalists vs. opposition, etc.), a new one has arisen to take their place. The questions the Lebanese will now ask eachother will be: “Do you believe the U.N. or Hizbullah?” “Which story is more convincing?” “Which evidence is more compelling?”

I don’t think this is a new binary, this is the same old division that is simply re-invigorated. The “old” March 14 will trust the UN and the “old” March 8 will believe Hezbollah. Of course the only tricky constituencies will be Walid Jumblat’s PSP and Michel Aoun’s FPM, who remain in a stubborn gray area.