❊ Hariri’s Confidence In The STL

Why it matters that Prime Minister Hariri publicly supports the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and what that means to Hezbollah.

While it may seem like a redundant matter to many, it is significant that P.M Hariri expressed public confidence in the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) the day after Hezbollah’s leader declared that he doesn’t recognize the body.

Mr. Hariri’s public declaration of confidence carries moral weight because he’s the son of Ex-PM Rafik Hariri whose murder the STL is trying to solve. But it is also an important tactical move in the Lebanese game of chess, as columnist Michael Young had argued before:

There has been speculation lately that Hariri might consider stepping down and handing over to someone like Mohammad Safadi, so as to allow him, or someone else, to suspend Lebanon’s collaboration with the tribunal. But the scheme would go nowhere if Hariri praises the work of the prosecutor, Daniel Bellemare. In that event, no Sunni prime minister would dare undercut the tribunal, not with Hariri endorsing the institution.

To put it another way, by publicly supporting the tribunal and declaring confidence in its work, Mr. Hariri makes it very difficult for Hezbollah to sabotage the STL by orchestrating a government coup.

Mr. Hariri also sends a message to all concerned Lebanese that he is having none of this talk about the politicization of the tribunal that Hezbollah and its allies are pushing. Make no mistake that there is a strong suppressed tension between Mr. Hariri and Hezbollah steaming under the surface.

In other words, the P.M’s attitude towards Hezbollah is: “We are humoring you not because we believe what you’re saying, but because we want to keep things calm until the official indictment”

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Note: Posts with titles starting with an ❊ (asterisk) are my opinion posts. I used this system to separate long posts from quick links and comments.