Hezbollah As Occupiers

Lebanese blogger A.K on the threat of Hezbollah’s use of force:

The best Nasrallah could hope to achieve is a protracted civil conflict where he plays the role of occupier, and where a growing resistance will show him and his fighters the price overly arrogant and ambitious sectarian leader pay whenever they try to dominate the other sects in this country.

Resisting Hezbollah will sound like poetic justice to many, but I don’t think Hezbollah will be so dumb to “occupy” Beirut. What they’re really aiming at is behind-the-scene control that is preceded by a swift takeover of the capital and handing it to pliable allies.

Hezbollah will also strive to give its puppet government a veneer of legitimacy, with a healthy dose of Aounist Christians, pro-syrian parties and others. But the biggest obstacle remains the Sunnis.

Some are suggesting that the Sunnis can be marginalized the same way Maronites were marginalized in the post-Taef period. But the situation is not the same because back then there was an implicit international consensus on the matter. Such a consensus is missing today.