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Remember that politics move quickly, and people and their opinions evolve.
Open Thread. What Next For Hariri?
January 24, 2011 · Mustapha Hamoui
As per the suggestion of one of my readers, I’ll leave the floor open here for a discussion about what Hariri’s next step should be, now that apparently Mr. Mikati will become the next PM. Here’s how the reader “A Purple Monkey” phrased the Issue:
If March 14 stays out of the Government, they can march on the same tune that Hezbollah used for a year and a half since the Government would technically exclude the Sunni representative, and be formed due to MPs voting contrary to what their constituents want. The issue here is that this could be a long process which achieves nothing (remember that Hezbollah only succeeded last time because of their terrorist actions on May 7); all the while Hezbollah will have an open opportunity to tighten its grip around Lebanon’s cooperation with the STL, in addition to each of the state’s judicial, security, and financial apparatus.
On the other hand, if Hariri declares his wish to form a National Unity Cabinet, and then stalls for months by setting a really high bar for his preconditions (a la Aoun’s post-elections behavior), then we would have sufficient time for the STL indictment to be announced, for Mikati to withdraw his nomination, and for the general political landscape to be reshuffled. The issue with this approach is that if such a Government is formed, Hariri might be considered to be lending legitimacy to Hezbollah’s behavior, and giving up on his right as the main representative of the Sunnis. This last point though, might also work to his advantage in the next elections, when he wants to name his own Parliament Speaker…
Thoughts?