❊ Would a Syrian Breakup Divide Lebanon Too?

Michael Young Thinks so:

If the Assads manage to retreat to an Alawite fortress, the repercussions in Lebanon (not to say Iraq) could be frightening. Attention would be drawn to Lebanon’s Shiites, but also Christians, to see if they might envisage a similar route toward communal self-preservation.

He believes the Christians in particular would be tempted:

virtually all mainstream Christian political groupings deep down aspire to a Lebanese state — federal, confederal or otherwise — that allows a majority of Christians to govern themselves and live among their own.

While that is true on some level, the main obstacle to achieving this “dream” is the sheer logistical nightmare of Christian geographical distribution in Lebanon (see map). Putting Lebanon’s Christians in one contiguous geographical polity means thousands of families from Akkar to Jezzine will have to be displaced.

The Allawis in Syria would move en mass because this would be their best survival option. The Lebanese Christians on the other hand have adopted a much better survival strategy: Unlike Syrian Alawites who stuck with the regime, Lebanese Christians can be found in Lebanese parties spanning the political spectrum. They are an integral part of March 8 and March 14. They can be found on the extreme Left and on the extreme right. They have burned the ships of segregation a long time ago.