❊ Aoun’s Risky Game of Chicken on Electricity

The Daily Star:

Ministers affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement will start boycotting Cabinet sessions from now on if Wednesday’s session fails to endorse an electricity plan proposed by their leader MP Michel Aoun, according to political sources.

Here’s what must have happened: As a negotiation tactic, the FPM wanted to place a serious threat of resignation on the table. Hezbollah, who cares about the cabinet, intervened and vetoed that. So Aoun opted for the next best thing: Resigning without resigning: Ie boycotting cabinet sessions.

This strategy is dangerous for Mr. Aoun. It is not as effective as the threat of resignation, and it risks painting the FPM in a corner.

It is not effective because Aoun’s only strong card was his threat of resignation. The opponents of his electricity plan like Mr. Walid Jumblat are already unfazed by his watered down threat and looked set to challenge him. The rest of the ministers could live without the attendance of their FPM colleagues to their meetings. Government will trudge along and Lebanese governing will stay as ineffective as it has always been.

Can the FPM sustain a prolonged stalemate? The oranges came to government with a promise of effective management. Their telecommunications minister Nicolas Sahnaoui drove this point home by immediately fixing the internet. Minister Bassil presumably wanted to pull the same trick with fixing the electricity. Boycotting the government for a long period of time risks severely undermining that image and undermining their popularity. Mr. Fix-it can turn into Mr. cry baby in a blink of an eye, and that won’t be pleasant to watch.

Worse, they have already made the threat, so backing down won’t be easy without losing face. This paints Aoun in a corner and can cause unpredictable consequences.

As always, the biggest losers will be the Lebanese. They will have to witness, yet again, a prolonged period of failed government…