How Much Does Hezbollah Need Syria?

Tom Rogan for The Guardian:

If Nasrallah believes it necessary, he will quietly move to put Hezbollah’s support behind a successor to Assad […] While Assad provides highly valuable support towards the pursuit of Hezbollah’s objectives, the survival of his regime is not in itself an imperative Hezbollah objective.

Tom Rogan makes the case for a pragmatic Hezbollah, but he seriously understates the level to which Hezbollah would be screwed if the Syrian regime fell. The Relationship Hezbollah has with the Syrian regime is in many ways similar to the relationship Israel had with Husni Mubarak: Whatever replaces him will be a much worse proposition.

Adjusting to a post-Assad Syria is not a “pragmatic realignment” for Hezbollah. It is serious damage control.