6 to 18 months

Nada Bakri reporting for the New York Times:

American and Turkish officials say that a collapse [of the Syrian regime] is not imminent and that the government can probably survive through the end of the year. But they now believe it is possible that the toll of the sanctions and protests could bring down Mr. Assad in 6 to 18 months.

“We’re all waiting for the thing that will crack them,” an Obama administration official said […] . “And it will be the economy that will wake everybody up, both those who support him, and Assad and his circle.”

I’m conflicted about the effectiveness of sanctions, especially when it affects “all layers of society”. I get the idea in principle: When people are economically stressed they take it out on their rulers. But, has sanctions worked on any other Arab/Muslim country? Saddam survived for years because he combined repression with rhetoric that blames the west for the bad economic lot of the Iraqis. What will prevent Assad from doing the same?