❊ An “Orchestrated” Hariri Assault on the Mikati Government ?

Yesterday, Aljoumhouria’s Asa’ad Bshara reported that ex-PM Saad Hariri is planning an all-out assault on the Mikati government that will start from Tripoli on November the 27th:

Why Tripoli? Observers say that Mr. Hariri will be starting an orchestrated campaign with the objective of dismantling the government of Hezbollah and Syria in Lebanon. Mr. Hariri is betting on the dawning of a new era in Syria and on the preparations for a new political phase in Lebanon.

He also has under his sight Prime Minister Najib Mikati who, exhausted by his government’s infighting and the issue of funding the international tribunal, is rapidly losing what remains of his legitimacy among the Sunnis after he failed to prevent his Foreign Minister from voting against the latest Arab League decision on Syria

I expect a huge turnout that will greet Mr. Hariri, who remains very popular in the northern Sunni stronghold. The Future Movement is even creating buzz by suggesting that the ex-PM might show up in person to the festival. A parlor game of “will he or will he not ?” will guarantee maximum turnout.

But will this really be the seminal event that will revitalize the Cedar Revolution, as Dr. Mustapha Allouch of the FM suggested?

Mr. Miqati never became Prime Minister because he was popular with the Sunnis. Right or wrong, the perception in Tripoli has always been that he was Hezbollah’s yes-man. Hezbollah and their allies had gone out of their ways to empower Mikati among the Sunnis in Tripoli. They gave the city 5 ministers and offered one of their Shiaa cabinet posts to a Sunni. Mr. Hariri’s assault will be to prove that all that didn’t work and that he is the rightful representative of the Sunnis in Lebanon.

In other words, the objective of this “orchestrated” assault is to restore Mr. Hariri’s right to speak in the name of Lebanon’s Sunnis. If victorious, that will simply mean that he will go back to negotiating with Hezbollah and Amal because they will remain popular among the Shiaas even if the Syrian regime fell.

The “revitalization of the Cedar revolution” is just another way of saying that we will return to the old politics of sect leaders negotiating power and making concessions to each other. In Lebanon, it appears, all roads will eventually lead to that “balanced” state of affairs: No more “no” votes, only abstentions.

In Tripoli, though, the crowds will cheer regardless..