❊ Is the Region on a War Footing? The Context for Sayyed Nasrallah’s Speech

Today, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah made a rare public appearance. One of the things he said was:

I address our enemies when I say that the Resistance is here to stay; day after day our troops are growing, our arms are developing and they are being constantly renewed

This can of course be dismissed as regular jaw jaw designed for local political consumption, but is it? As I look at the region, I see many signs that things aren’t quite right. A war between Iran and the west could very well be looming.

Consider the following points:

1. November 8: The IAEA releases a damning report on Iranian nuclear weapons that surprises and alarms western powers and pushes the British foreign minister to issue threats
2. November 14: A Big blast targets a missile depot in Tehran and is seen as a major setback to Iran’s Missile program.
3. November 16: Israeli leaks news of a secret plan for attacking Iran, as the war drums in Israel get louder and louder.
4. November 29: Iranian demonstrators storm British embassy in Tehran with the apparent support of the state.
5. December 3: Israeli Prime Minister announces that sometimes leader have to make big, unpopular decisions. While he spoke, Syria tested a SCUD B missile.
6. December 5: Iran captured an American surveillance drone with top American secrets in it.
7. December 6: The Telegraph reports that Iran is now on high military alert and is expecting and preparing for an attack.

And I haven’t even started with the implications of the Syrian revolution, the success of which could be a major strategic setback for Iran and Hezbollah. It is against this backdrop that we have to read Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s speech.

Am I worried? Yes. Should you cancel your Christmas vacations in Lebanon? Not yet, but some caution can go a long way.