Lebanon’s “Suspended” Sunnis

Hazem el Amin compares the Sunnis’ political weakness today to that of the Christians during their post-Taef nadir, but he highlights one key difference:

The political and social moment [in the region] is not consistent with the power distribution in Lebanon. When the Christians were shut out, it happened at a time when major regional interests overruled the interests of a local community, a community which shouldered the burdens of the civil war. But today, a political suspension is happening to a Lebanese sect that is having a regional ascendancy.

I see Mr. El Amin’s point, but I’m not sure I agree with him that the Sunnis are having a regional ascendancy. Forget for a moment that the outcome in Syria is far from certain, or that the dust of the Arab spring is yet to settle. Do we really know which groups and ideologies are on the ascendancy in the region?

Let’s humor Mr. El Amin for a second and assume that the “Sunnis” are indeed winning. Which Sunnis are we talking about? Are we talking about pragmatic Islamists with popular democratic mandates? (Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt?). Are we talking about conservative Gulf Monarchies with oil money? Or are we talking about “Alqaeda” Sunnis who like to blow people up?

The only thing that unifies the various strains of Sunnis in the region is their opposition to Iran, the Syrian regime and the “Shiaa encroachment”. In that sense yes the “Sunnis” are winning because Iran is becoming weaker and the ideology of armed resistance is losing its sway. But it is far from clear what will fill the hole the Iranians and Syrian regime are leaving behind.

We are witnessing this uncertainty in Lebanon. Hezbollah is indeed losing control, but that is not automatically translating into a political empowerment for the Future Movement. The Hariris have until recently maintained an alliance of secular Sunnis, businessmen, Islamists and Wahhabis. That alliance held because of a common enemy, but take that enemy away and the centrifugal forces will start working again.

Lebanon’s Sunnis, like those in the Arab region, are embroiled in a historic moment that combines high uncertainty with a frantic rush for gold. Things are going to remain “suspended” for a while.