❊ Rusty Nabih Berri Begins Difficult Turnaround Process

— Can he pull it off? —

There are many things that Walid Jumblat and Nabih Berri have in common. Both are warlords who benefitted from the Taef agreement. Both are Machiavellian figures who play off larger powers against each other to remain relevant. Both secretly despise absolutists like M.P. Aoun and Sayyed Nasrallah, but both won’t think twice before allying themselves with them to maintain their hold on power.

Most importantly, both are political survivors who have kept up with the darwinian world of Lebanese politics despite being relative political midgets. Soon though, Mr. Berri’s skills at political reinvention will have to be tested, as the events in Syria present the combination of threats and rewards that typically precede political turnarounds.

Mr. Berri could play a key role in the rolling back of Hezbollah’s influence in a post Arab spring Levant. He can be the pro-arab Lebanese Shiaa who helps reduce Iran’s influence in Lebanon. But to get from here to there, he will need a transformation of Jumblatian proportions. This is a very delicate dance that will take months to pull off. It’s fraught with danger and it will take time for people to completely understand the magnitude of the strategic shift that will take place once Assad falls.

Can he pull it off? Unlike Mr. Jumblat, Mr. Nabih Berri hasn’t been having much practice in the dark art of extreme political repositioning. His alliance with Hezbollah has been stable for a while and he is yet to prove that he can still reinvent himself. Luckily, the smooth operator of Mukhtara is offering him some lessons. The most important one of all is: Always start small..