❊ Are We Witnessing a Gradual Islamisation of Lebanon?

Below are three news stories from the past couple of days that don’t mean much on their own but that together could be indicative of a trend:

• A group of Muslim students pray together in the middle of the yard of an ecclesiastical Christian university despite the administration’s objection
• A group of Muslim women who want to join the police force show up for training wearing Hijabs (Muslim head cover) despite rules that prohibit the display of religious symbols in law enforcement.
• A political analyst speculates that Mr. Saad Hariri and the Future Movement could lose votes in 2013 to the likes of Sheikh Ahmad el Assir and the Islamic brotherhood

As I said, these news cuts could be isolated incidents and specific circumstances that don’t have any wider ramifications. But one can’t help but wonder if the new assertiveness of Islamists in the region is beginning to gradually rub off on Lebanon, a country that is highly influenced by its surroundings.

I’ve previously written about the potential effect of the events in Syria on the Lebanese Sunnis, and I think it’s worth repeating it here:

The Hariris have until recently maintained an alliance of secular Sunnis, businessmen, Islamists and Wahhabis. That alliance held because of a common enemy [the Syrian regime], but take that enemy away and the centrifugal forces will start working again. Lebanon’s Sunnis, like those in the Arab region, are embroiled in a historic moment that combines high uncertainty with a frantic rush for gold

But the Sunnis are not alone. If anecdotal evidence is any guide, even the Shiaas are starting to exhibit a more assertive Islamic identity in public. The political allegations that this behavior is the result of Hezbollah’s hubris does not square with the generally accepted idea that Hezbollah will lose out from the demise of the Assad regime.

The Christians too are acting as if Islamisation is already upon us. One only needs to watch the behavior and statements of Patriarch Rai and Christian political leaders for signs of both paranoia and bravado, a combination that paints a portrait of a community living in a world of fear and existential anxiety.

As historic inflection points go, this is something we can only eventually realize in hindsight. We can’t really tell right now if we’re going through a real, enduring wave of Islamisation in Lebanon. All we can see are signs. But like everything else in this country, signs can be deceptive and fleeting.