Deterrence by Rumor-Mongering

You don’t read news like this every day:

A former Lebanese security official residing in Paris told [Alseyasa]: “The moment the attempt [on Samir Geagea’s life] was announced, hundreds of LF, Phalange Party, and National Liberal Front fighters, as well as Lebanese army backers, headed to the regions that surround Beirut’s southern suburbs and Shiyyah area, Hizbullah and AMAL’s respective stronghold.”

He revealed that Lebanese intelligence confirmed that some 2,300 Christian fighters had in fact deployed in those areas.

This can only be one of two things: An irrational and spontaneous act by armed loyalists that was somehow called off at the last minute, or clumsy rumor-mongering that is meant to establish the high cost of assassinating Dr. Geagea in hope of deterring would-be assassins and assuring supporters.

I’m discounting the first option because it doesn’t sound right. Thousands of armed militiamen can’t just gather around an urban center without being seen by anyone, especially with Dahieh being such a Hezbollah security strong-hold with thousands of informants lying around waiting for any signs of irregular activity. If such a mobilization really did happen, we would have heard about it in Al-Akhbar or Assafir by now.

Considering the source of this story (Alseyasa) and their own source for the news (A former Lebanese security official residing in Paris, a.k.a Johnny Abdo), this story feels distinctly like rumor mongering that is more sad than scary. Such a rumor would have two target audiences and two messages:

• The assassins and their supporters: Killing Samir Geagea won’t be a walk in the park. Don’t try this again unless you really want pandemonium and another civil war
• March 14 supporters of Dr. Geagea: Don’t be afraid, Hezbollah are not the only armed militias in town. We got your back in case they attack

This is sad because the people’s need to hear such stories is testimony to the failing of the law-and-order forces and the Lebanese army at inspiring confidence. It’s also scary because such rumors have a nasty habit of turning into self-fulfilling spirals of distrust that can kindle civil wars.

The best thing right now is for Dr. Geagea to categorically deny these rumors and to, once again, declare that he has complete trust in the Lebanese army as the sole legitimate carrier of weapons and the only guarantor of civil peace.